The average U.S. multifamily rent fell $3 to $1,473 in November, according to the latest National Multifamily Report by Yardi Matrix. Year-over-rent growth fell by 20 basis points, down to 3.1% for the month.
National rent growth has held at 3% or above since spring 2018, demonstrating the strength and consistency of multifamily demand, according to Yardi. More than 320,000 new multifamily units have been absorbed so far in 2019, marking the sixth straight year with at least 250,000 new multifamily units absorbed. Seattle, Denver, and Dallas have had the highest multifamily absorption, followed by Houston, Austin, Texas, and Washington, D.C.
Out of the top 30 metro markets, those in the Southwest and West have seen the strongest YOY rent growth. Phoenix had the highest rent growth at 7.5%, followed by Las Vegas at 6% and Sacramento at 5.3%. In the Southeast, Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., led at 4.6% each, while high-growth markets in the Midwest included Indianapolis at 4% and the Twin Cities at 3.7%. San Jose saw the lowest rent growth YOY at 0.1%, followed by San Francisco and Houston, both at 1.4%.
Rents rose by 0.1% at the national level on a trailing three-month (T-3) basis, which compares the last three months with the previous three months. Rent growth was flat or negative in 18 of the top 30 markets by this measure and flat nationally overall. Orange County, Calif., and Phoenix both led the market in T-3 rent growth at 0.4%, while San Jose (-0.8%) as well as Seattle and San Francisco (-0.4%) fell fastest. Overall, warm markets saw the highest growth, while tech-centric and gateway markets saw declines.
Commercial real estate’s positive cycle has lasted almost a decade, with strong occupier demand and strong rent growth in most segments. Property values are at an all-time high, debt markets are functioning, and deal flow is healthy. Despite this, Yardi says, many in the industry are wondering when a recession may come.
Yardi notes that underwriting is tight, margins of error are narrow, and high risk assets—such as value-add and mezzanine loans—are not generating much premium for investors. Short-term bond rates have topped long-term rates recently, which has historically precluded a recession. GDP growth has waned, and the tax cut stimulus has faded. Business investment is struggling, with trade tensions and supply chain uncertainty ongoing. This comes alongside high consumer confidence, a tight labor market, and growing wages.
According to Yardi, among the possible catalysts for a downturn could be corporate debt, which has grown in this cycle, a global economy weakened by the national market, or ongoing uncertainty, especially with a presidential election upcoming. For the moment, however, the economy is set to expand at a 2%-plus real rate.
