The multifamily industry entered 2026 bracing for another difficult leasing environment shaped by elevated deliveries, aggressive concessions, and questions about whether renter demand could keep pace with new supply. Midway through the year, operators say the pressure remains real in many markets, but the conversation has shifted from reacting to the supply wave to managing through it.
Nationally, apartment fundamentals remain relatively healthy, even as oversupplied markets continue to face significant pricing pressure. According to RealPage chief economist Carl Whitaker, stabilized apartment occupancy reached 95.2% in April, down roughly half a percentage point year over year but still within a range that supports operational stability.
“We’re actually at an okay starting point from an occupancy perspective,” Whitaker says. “We’re still working to backfill some of the vacancies that were left late last year, but demand is still relatively strong in most markets.”
The divide, operators say, is increasingly local.
“It is a tale of two cities,” says Jeff Brown, founder and managing principal at T2 Capital Management. “Sun Belt occupancy comes at a cost. The cost is some significant concessions to put heads in beds, and you’re sacrificing rent growth in that process as well.”
Brown says markets across the Southeast continue to feel the effects of elevated deliveries that reshaped multifamily fundamentals over the last several years. While occupancy across T2’s roughly 5,000-unit portfolio remains healthy overall, operators in oversupplied markets are competing aggressively for the same renter pool.
“Concessions are the name of the game,” Brown says. “The shock of the supply is over, but there has been this capitulation from landlords and lenders that says, ‘We don’t have expectations of hitting a 2023 pro forma anymore. Here’s our new reality.’”
Whitaker says the numbers support that sentiment. As of April, roughly 17% of vacant units nationally were offering concessions, the highest share since the early 2010s apartment cycle. In many high-supply Sun Belt markets, operators are also offering deeper discounts than they were even a year ago.
At the same time, the broader supply picture may finally be beginning to moderate. Whitaker notes that while first-quarter deliveries remained historically elevated, the pace of new inventory has started to slow nationally.
“The supply narrative does seem to be evolving into this idea that there is light at the end of the tunnel, assuming demand can hold firm,” Whitaker says.
Some markets are already benefiting from that imbalance reversing in the opposite direction. In Chicago, where new apartment development has remained relatively constrained, operators are seeing stronger pricing power and exceptionally high retention.
At Draper and Kramer’s 1350 North Lake Shore Drive property in Chicago’s Gold Coast neighborhood, occupancy currently sits at 96%, above the property’s stabilized target. Renewal retention has climbed to roughly 78% despite rent increases ranging from 6% to 8% for existing residents.
“We’re not getting a whole lot of units back,” says Alan Klein, regional property manager at Draper and Kramer. “Not only has that helped us maintain occupancy, but we’re also pushing rents.”
Klein says prospective renters are still moving quickly, often applying within 48 hours of touring a property, but renewal behavior has shifted slightly as renters weigh their options more carefully before making a decision.
“We are seeing a lot of rescinding of notices,” Klein says. “Residents will put in notice, shop the market, and then come back because they can’t find something comparable or better.”
The Human Touch
For operators navigating softer leasing conditions, retention and resident experience have become increasingly important differentiators. Brown says that has changed how operators approach concessions, including offering incentives not only to new residents but sometimes to existing ones as well.
“We know moving is hard,” Brown says. “If we can keep it easy on somebody and offer them a concession to stay put and keep occupancy up, that’s what we’re opting to do.”
Technology and automation are also playing a growing role in leasing operations, particularly as operators look to improve responsiveness and reduce lead fallout during nights and weekends. Brown says artificial intelligence (AI)-powered leasing tools have been especially helpful in handling initial inquiries, scheduling tours, and answering common questions outside normal office hours.
Still, several operators cautioned that technology alone is not driving leasing success.
Ashley Cardona, regional manager at Rentyl Apartments & Homes, says the strongest-performing communities in Florida are often the ones balancing automation with strong in-person engagement.
“The teams that are winning aren’t winning because of their technology,” Cardona says. “They’re winning because of their people.”
Cardona says markets including Wesley Chapel and St. Johns County near Jacksonville remain highly competitive as operators work through elevated supply. Even in markets showing signs of stabilization, concessions remain significant.
“Stabilized doesn’t mean recovered,” she says. “It just means the bleed has slowed.”
After shopping competing properties throughout Florida, Cardona says she has seen firsthand how overreliance on automation can create operational blind spots that ultimately hurt leasing performance.
“What I keep seeing at underperforming properties is technology being used as a replacement for human connection rather than support for it,” Cardona says. “Prospects are falling through the cracks because no one is following up with intention.”
At high-performing communities, she says technology is being used more strategically to support leasing teams rather than replace them.
“Our best teams treat technology as exactly what it should be: a tool,” Cardona says. “It handles the repetitive touchpoints so leasing professionals can focus on what actually moves a prospect from interested to signed.”
That operational discipline may become increasingly important as the industry moves through the second half of the year. While many operators believe the worst of the supply shock is likely behind them, few expect conditions to normalize overnight. Instead, the leasing season is increasingly defined by execution, responsiveness, and the ability to create a resident experience strong enough to stand out in a highly competitive market.
“The properties outperforming aren’t just offering the best deal,” Cardona says. “They’re offering the best experience.”