A new Apartment List study estimates the number of years young Millennials will need to save for a down payment.
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Since 1980, real median family income has grown by just 25% compared with a coinciding 60% rise in median home prices, Apartment List reports. In the same amount of time, undergraduate tuition has spiked 160%, accompanied by increasing student debt burdens. From 2005 to 2015, the average student debt burden increased by 70%, to roughly $34,000, according to the apartment research and listing company.

A new study from Apartment List explores young millennials’ ability to save for a down payment on a home in light of these trends. An analysis of over 11,000 millennials’ responses to the annual Apartment List Renter Survey found that recent college graduates with no student debt have an average of $10,370 saved for a down payment and expect $3,570 in down-payment assistance from their families. Recent graduates with debt have saved $4,320 and expect $2,220 in assistance, on average, while millennials without a degree have saved an average of $2,240 and expect $1,130 in aid.

In other words, graduates with debt have less than half of the funds that debt-free graduates have saved and expect, while millennials without degrees have less than one-fourth of what debt-free grads enjoy. In addition, the study found that graduates without debt save $60 more on a monthly basis than those with debt, and $120 more than those without a degree.

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Apartment List estimated how long it would take each group to save for a 20% down payment on a condo at the national median price of $222,000. Based on the average each group has saved, the average amount of assistance they expect, and their average monthly savings, the study found that recent college graduates without debt would need 7.6 years to make this payment. Recent graduates with debt would require an additional 4.3 years, for a total of 11.9 years, while millennials without a degree would need an additional 9.1 years, or 16.7 years total.

By these estimates, a 25-year-old who didn’t attend college wouldn't be able to make a down payment until he or she was 42 and would be paying off a 30-year mortgage loan into his or her 70s, Apartment List says.

The San Francisco–based research/listing firm repeated its analysis at the metro-market level by using local median condo prices in the 20 largest U.S. housing markets. The study found that millennials without a degree would need over 20 years to save for a down payment in Austin, Texas; San Diego; San Francisco; Los Angeles; and Denver. In addition, even debt-free graduates would need over a decade to make a down payment in more than half of the markets analyzed, by Apartment List estimates.