
With "Survive to 25" at hand, two leading multifamily financial advisers voice cautious optimism the slogan will live up to its promise.
Walker & Dunlop’s Brendan Coleman and Alan Davis recently sat down to discuss their 2025 outlook. Coleman leads a debt originations team that has posted over $21 billion in multifamily deals since 2007. Davis, an investment sales managing director, helps lead the firm’s equity side. The two work closely together to provide clients with agnostic, all-options counsel through a recovering, still unsettled interest rate environment.
How would you characterize 2024?

Coleman: Interest rates were high and transaction volumes low through the first half of 2024. Then about late August, 10-year Treasury notes dropped well below 4%. Things took off in September, October, and November, with Freddie Mac setting an annualized production pace of over $90 billion, a record run rate. Fannie operated at a similar velocity. Everyone was super busy in the third quarter. The sentiment was, "let’s get things done before the election."
Davis: What was interesting on the equity side, in the third quarter, we awarded $4.5 billion in investment sales transactions when interest rates were the lowest and sentiment was at its highest. By the time those transactions were completing due diligence in the fourth quarter, interest rates were at their highest and sentiment was plunging. During that time, about 75% of those transactions were repriced and only one deal didn’t get repriced and failed to trade across $4.5 billion in investment sales transactions. Across the board, price adjustments were comparatively minor and rooted in math to account for the 90-basis point jump in rates. I take that as a sign the market wants to transact. Capital wants to be invested.
Where do things stand now?
Coleman: Just six to eight weeks ago, the 10-year T-bill rate was 3.6%. Now, it’s over 4.4%. That’s a big change in a very short time. The whipsaw effect causes people to pause and reset expectations. Buyers and sellers need more capital markets stability.

Davis: We recently cataloged all the sales transactions that failed to close in 2024. We also looked at all the merchant build transactions that started construction in 2021 and 2022. When you add the two, it indicates about $65 billion of transactions that need to happen in 2025. That number doesn’t even factor in the normal cadence of multifamily investment sales transactions. Bottom line, 2025 trading volume to clear the backlog of trades that want to trade represents about two-and-a-half times the transaction volume we saw in 2023 and 2024.
A lot of product needs to clear the market. The good news is the capital is there. People want to transact.
You describe your 2025 outlook as cautiously optimistic. What encourages you?
Davis: Multifamily construction starts were down 40% last year. Most of the supply that was delivered in coastal gateway markets has been absorbed. Rent growth is solid. Fundamentals look good in those markets. No development firms have shut down, a big difference from the Great Financial Crisis recession. I expect to see shovels in the ground sooner rather than later.
How are you advising clients today?
Coleman: Our best advice is to keep all options open as long as possible. You want to be in a ready position to transact swiftly once rates stabilize. If you want to sell, your sales book should be well along with third-party reports and investor conversations. If you want to refinance, great. Everything should be in place to move quickly.
For example, we’re working with a client that has a maturity coming due. They would prefer to sell, but will the market come back with a price they want? It’s tough to say. If it doesn’t, they need to finance quickly. We advise them on all options, debt or disposition.
Davis: It’s best to get us involved early. Let us use all the tools at our disposal to de-risk your asset and best position it in any given market, be it investment sales or a debt transaction. Until capital markets stabilize, keep all options open and be poised to move quickly.
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