Despite economic uncertainty, the multifamily market maintained its strength the first half of 2025, with demand nearly keeping pace with the heavy supply of deliveries. According to Yardi Matrix’s semiannual national outlook, the decline in starts and deliveries provides an “optimism about a new wave of rent growth on the other side of the supply peak.”
Rents have remained resilient, with gains primarily in the Northeast and Midwest and negative growth in the high-supply Sun Belt markets. Yardi Matrix forecasts national rent growth of 1.5% this year, 1.1% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027, and 3% to 3.5% by 2028.
In addition, according to Yardi Matrix, markets with higher inventory are expected to see positive growth by the end of 2027. The 12 high-supply markets—Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Charlotte, North Carolina; Denver; Jacksonville, Florida; Miami; Nashville, Tennessee; Orlando, Florida; Phoenix; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; Salt Lake City; and San Antonio—are expected to turn positive in 2027 and normalize between 2% and 4% year-over-year growth after 2029.
Over 500,000 multifamily units are still expected to come online this year. The top six markets expected to see the highest delivery volume this year are Dallas with 28,930 units; Phoenix, 28,780 units; Austin, 23,701 units; Charlotte, 19,543; Atlanta, 18,780; and New York City, 17,523. According to Yardi Matrix, several smaller markets also are expected to experience significant expansion of multifamily stock this year, including the Southwest Florida Coast; Mankato, Minnesota; Montana; Boise, Idaho; and Asheville, North Carolina.
The impact from the decline in starts will become more pronounced in 2026. Yardi Matrix forecasts 422,000 new units to be delivered next year, followed by the bottom of 350,000 units in 2027 and then a gradual recovery between 2028 and 2030. The decline in new supply will be seen across all unit types. By 2027, market-rate deliveries are expected to decline by 47% from their 2024 peak, while affordable housing and senior housing are expected to drop by 24% and 17%, respectively. Single-family build-to-rent product also is expected to see a decline of 43%.
According to Yardi Matrix, multifamily transaction activity remains subdued. Transactions totaled $25.9 billion through the end of May, up 6.8% from the $24.3 billion during the first five months of 2024.
“Liquidity is not the problem. Multifamily is the most attractive commercial real estate property type for investors, thanks to its strong performance in recent years and the perceived stability compared to other property types,” noted the report. “The holdup continues to be disagreement on pricing. … With rates unlikely to move much this year, expect the stalemate to continue.”
The markets with the most transaction activity year to date are Dallas, $1.5 billion; Chicago, $1.2 billion; Phoenix and Seattle, each at $1.1 billion; and Miami, $913 million.
Yardi Matrix will continue to watch how federal policy changes under the second Trump administration might impact the multifamily industry in the second half of the year and beyond.
“The U.S. economy has held up under the weight of sharp changes in policy, but there are risks from the impact of higher tariffs, volatility in the financial markets, and general uncertainty about policy,” stated the report. “Interest rates, critical to the multifamily industry, are unlikely to drop given the tug of war between weaker economic growth and potentially higher inflation.”