The condo MESS in locations as Miami, Phoenix, Ariz., Las Vegas, and Southern California is old news. After hungry developers overbuilt for phony demand, investors chose to rent out that oversupply to generate cash flow, causing the number of rental units to surge and conventional apartment operators to suffer. According to fourth-quarter numbers from M|PF YieldStar, a Carrollton, Texas-based firm that provides multifamily market analysis, those markets are getting worse. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Los Angeles saw occupancy drops of 3.5 percent or more (Miami fell 2.6 percent). Foreclosure rates were also up in all five markets, rising the most (3.48 percent) in Las Vegas.
“I see no improvement yet,” says Stephen Swett, an analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment banking and security brokerage firm in New York. “I think they will get worse before they get better.”
For some owners in oversupplied markets, shadow rentals are not their biggest concern and may, in fact, be overblown. The bigger issue seems to be jobs. “Performance all across the country is getting worse,” says Greg Willet, vice president of research and analysis at M|PF Yieldstar. “Certainly, all of this shadow market contributes to that. We’re at the stage now where it’s all about the job numbers. All of these markets have significant job loss.”
The following stats below reflect the following cities (in order):
4Q rent (Change)
3Q foreclosure RATES
4Q Occupancy Levels (Change)
3Q Median Home price